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Vulgar Statistics: Women’s Hockey Rankings 1-12

01/12/15
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As the NCAA season progresses, I’m going to publish weekly rankings in conjunction with the USCHO poll.  These rankings will be entirely statistics based with the explanation as to how those stats are developed here.  As I prefer to do when compiling rankings, a team’s final ranking will be determined by a summation of their rankings in various statistical categories:

  • Overall winning percentage (pct)
  • Percentage of shots taken (S%) – (Editor’s Note – This is essentially the best imitator of Corsi %.  I’m told that shot attempts (Shots on goal plus missed shots plus shots taken that get blocked) are recorded but that data is not available anywhere.) 
  • Percentage of shots taken relative to Opponents’ S% (Rel S%)
  • S% versus teams with an S% of 50% or more
  • Rel S% versus teams with an S% of 50 or more
  • Shooting Percentage (Sht%)
  • Save Percentage (Sv%)

uscho

Some weird movement in the poll.  Sure Quinnipiac is 5-0 in the new year, but their wins are against Union, Rensselaer, Princeton, Brown, and Yale.  Harvard, also 5-0, has wins over Brown, Yale, Connecticut, Union, and Rensselaer.  BU meanwhile has a loss to BC and a win over Maine.  That BU – BC tilt was one of the weirdest games I’ve ever watched.  BU actually held 2-0 and 3-2 leads after scoring on all three of their shots in the first.  BC’s goaltender didn’t make her first save until 32 minutes of game had been played.  Ultimately BC won 4-3 and the shots ended a more normal 43-23.

RPI

A lot of the teams in the bottom half played one another so the lower part of the rankings got turned on its head.  I’ve watched Quinnipiac a few times now and they’ve looked a little shaky.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Harvard or even Clarkson win the ECAC.  Boston College cemented itself as better than Boston University with a fairly impressive 4-3 win, and Minnesota over Wisconsin with a 4-1 win and a 1-1 tie.

my rank

I feel like these are really sliding into an accurate assessment of the teams, at least from 1 to 20 or so.  There is perhaps not enough difference between the rest to say that one is definitively better than another on any given night.

Princeton’s remaining schedule is not kind: @ Boston College, Dartmouth, Harvard, Colgate, Cornell, @ Clarkson, @ St. Lawrence, @ Brown, @ Yale.

Clarkson has Union and Rensselaer at home so look for two blowout wins this weekend before they head to play Wisconsin twice the following weekend.

And again:

  • Jan. 30 – Harvard @ Quinnipiac
  • Feb. 14 – Quinnipiac @ Clarkson
  • Feb. 21 – Clarkson @ Harvard

I believe Quinnipiac and Clarkson have free live feeds for home games so circle those dates.

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