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Vulgar Statistics: NCAA Women’s Hockey Rankings 12-15

12/15/14

As the NCAA season progresses, I’m going to publish weekly rankings in conjunction with the USCHO poll.  These rankings will be entirely statistics based with the explanation as to how those stats are developed here.  As I prefer to do when compiling rankings, a team’s final ranking will be determined by a summation of their rankings in various statistical categories:

  • Overall winning percentage (pct)
  • Percentage of shots taken (S%) – (Editor’s Note – This is essentially the best imitator of Corsi %.  I’m told that shot attempts (Shots on goal plus missed shots plus shots taken that get blocked) are recorded but that data is not available anywhere.) 
  • Percentage of shots taken relative to Opponents’ S% (Rel S%)
  • S% versus teams with an S% of 50% or more
  • Rel S% versus teams with an S% of 50 or more
  • Shooting Percentage (Sht%)
  • Save Percentage (Sv%)

uscho

Okay Bemidji State…sigh.  This is a dead horse at this point but…Mercyhurst loses two to Penn State, whom most metrics/polls agree is at least decent and they drop four spots.  Bemidji State drops the second game this past weekend to putrid St. Cloud State (3-0) and they don’t move at all.  What?

RPI

The RPI tells a similar story.  I don’t know why Harvard and Boston University swapped spots as they were both idle this weekend.  My guess is that BU’s schedule looks a little weaker now with Vermont and Maine going 0-2-1 over the weekend, and Harvard’s a little stronger with Union and Dartmouth going 2-0-1.

Speaking of which, I’ve long been a big fan of the Union Dutchwomen.  Their story in Division 1 is not a happy one.  They’re 10-218-12 in the ECAC all time, having been outscored 1,093-188.  Their first season they were outscored 133-9 in conference play.  They’re 52-303-24 overall in D-1, having been outscored 1,560-475 and many of those wins come against lower division opponents.  They’ve finished last in the ECAC every year except 2011-2012, where they finished second to last.  Between February 29th, 2004 and January 15th 2010, they won precisely 0 Conference games.  So it’s nice to see them have even a small amount of success.  And while they’re still a bottom of the pack team, this year they are at least not significantly worse than the other ECAC bottom feeders.  Woo!  Not definitely last!

my rank

The two columns are now movement from last week and the team’s performance over the weekend.  Some thoughts:

Since several of the figures I use to determine my rankings consider the ongoing performances of each team’s full slate of opponents, nonsensical improvements and losses are to be expected here.

I’m a little bummed Bemidji State didn’t move in my rankings either, but I also have them ranked much lower than anyone else.

I’m curious to see how the teams ranked 10th to 16th above do down the stretch.  I’m not really sure how good some of them (Northeastern, Ohio State) are, but it wouldn’t surprise me if any one of them went on a winning streak and made the NCAA tournament.  At this point last season, UND was the 4th ranked team in the country.  They failed to make the NCAA tournament.

And coincidentally, Clarkson beat UND on December 7th last year.  That game would begin a 14-0-3 run to end the regular season.  Clarkson would only lose one more game (a 1-0 loss to Cornell in the ECAC Tournament) en route to their first National Championship.

At this point though, I feel fairly confident in saying the top eight teams above are the top eight teams, or at least the teams to make the tournament since the CHA Tournament winner (Mercyhurst, most likely) gets an auto-bid.

 

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