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Vulgar Statistics: Production vs. Pay


This player is overpaid!  Get the pitchforks!  You hear it every year, someone isn’t earning the sackfuls of cash they receive from the franchise.  Sometimes it’s obvious and sometimes the fans all board the same hate train for one player for no real reason.  So, which Sabres don’t see their production living up to the dollar signs?

I’m only going to measure the forwards because their production is a much better indication of their value than a defenseman’s.  A defenseman can go an entire year with minimal points and still be productive, a forward really can’t.


So…um…yeah, Derek Roy everyone, wooo!  I think the most interesting player is Paul Gaustad.  On the ice, Gaustad’s contract simply hasn’t looked very good.  Giving that amount of money to a player who really isn’t that offensively talented seems like a waste.  However, this season he’s actually earning his pay.  When you factor in how good he’s been on faceoffs (64.9%, third in the league among players with more than 50 faceoffs taken), his contract even looks even better.

Now, take that with a grain of salt though, the team isn’t playing well right now.  Vanek, Pominville, and Hecht aren’t scoring.  Ideally their numbers would be a bit better, and Gaustad’s offensive contribution would be diminished.  Other than that, what can you say?  I don’t think any team is going to play well when its two highest paid players aren’t even coming close to living up to their contracts.

Derek Roy everyone!


3 Comments leave one →
  1. Ramrob permalink
    11/08/10 2:04 PM

    Haven’t looked at salary figures in a while. Forgot that Pominville made so much dough! Unless this team shapes up real quick It’s gonna suck when Roy’s contract is up. Nice post.

  2. Phil permalink
    11/08/10 9:28 PM

    The big fallacy here is that this doesn’t account for scale.

    By your analysis, a team with a bunch of nobodies who loses every game, but gets a minimal amount of goals, would be performing great. I’d rather have a lot of overpaid players who form a winning team. But best would be if the stars lived up to their hype (and as much as I hate him, I’m happy Roy is making me regret all the times I swear at him)

  3. 11/09/10 12:21 AM

    The chart is merely to show each forward’s contribution percentage (in terms of points) and how that relates to the percentage of “forward cap” their salary encompasses. It’s not so much an overall performance indicator as it is a way to hold a player to what they should be producing, and to highlight who is underachieving.

    Your assertion is correct in that it is possible for a team to not score and have every player hit a percentage of points comparable to their cap space, but it’s meaningless. The point of the article isn’t to deal with what COULD happen, it’s to better explain what IS happening.

    Don’t think of it as being able to be used to measure players. Think of it as an explanation as to who we should be mad at.

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