Skip to content

Vulgar Statistics: Reviewing Darcy Regier

03/26/13
by

The ship of opinion on Darcy Regier as an NHL GM has largely sailed, with the evidence of a putrid Sabres squad sitting before him and damning him.  While that alone is enough to be a indictment in today’s NHL (and rightfully so), I wanted to see if I could put numbers to his skills and ineptitudes (because I feel he does come with both).

I relegated myself to the years between the lockouts for a few reasons.  First, finding reputable sources for moves that were made before the era of Wikipedia and Capgeek is incredibly difficult.  Second, as the NHL and hockey in general are fluid entities, it doesn’t make much sense to judge someone on what they did ten years ago.  I don’t even feel entirely comfortable judging him on what he did seven years ago.  But here we are.

This isn’t the sort of analysis that comes with advanced figures or a world of depth and nuance.  It’s what is probably my bread and butter, a ton of legwork that no one thought (or wanted) to do coupled with simplified analysis that paints a decent, if vague, picture.

I essentially took every player that Regier has given up via trade and free agency (keeping them as separate categories), and matched those stats against every player that Darcy has acquired.  I realize there are many limitations to this method, but I figured with dozens of players and seven years worth of hockey, the sheer sample size would help smooth some of that out.

I chose not to look at drafting because comparing the stats of 1,470ish NHL players (7 years * 7 rounds * 30 teams) was too much for even me.  Considering the sort of young talent that has come up through Buffalo, I think most of us can admit that Darcy is an adequate drafter, or that drafting is such a crapshoot anyway, his impact is minimized.  When drafting, you are essentially mining raw materials and what really matters is how the coaches refine those materials.  (And the scouts do a ton of the legwork anyway.)  I think a GM makes his money on trades and in free agency, and that includes deciding who is worth re-signing and who should be allowed to walk.

Trades:

Take a deep breath if you’re reading this out loud.

Since the 05-06 season Darcy has traded Mika Noronen, Martin Biron, Brian Campbell, Mikael Tellqvist, Nathan Paetsch, Paul Gaustad, Milan Bartovic, Jan Hejda, Clarke MacArthur, Chris Butler, Paul Byron, Marc-Andre Gragnani, Zack Kassian, Taylor Pyatt, Jiri Novotny, Ales Kotalik, Daniel Paille, Steve Montador, T.J Brennan, a 2006 3rd (John Armstrong), two 2007 4ths (Mark Santorelli and Keith Aulie), a 2007 5th (Michael Neal), a 2008 1st (Colten Teubert), a 2008 3rd (Andrew Campbell), a 2008 7th (Drew Daniels), two 2009 2nds (Jesse Blacker and William Wrenn), a 2009 3rd (Ryan Howse), two 2010 2nds (Petr Straka and Mark Alt), a 2011 2nd (Joel Edmundson), a 2012 4th (Loic Leduc), and a 2013 4th…

…for…

…Toni Lydman, Dainius Zubrus, Steve Bernier, Mikael Tellqvist, Raffi Torres, Brad Boyes, Ty Conklin, Dominic Moore, Ales Kotalik, Robyn Regehr, Cody Hodgson, Alexander Sulzer, Mikko Lehtonen, Craig Rivet, a 2006 2nd (Jhonas Enroth), a 2007 2nd (T.J. Brennan), two 2007 5ths (Bradley Eidsness and Jean-Simon Allard), a 2007 7th (Nick Eno), a 2008 1st (Tyler Myers), a 2008 3rd (Corey Fienhage), a 2008 4th (Justin Jokinen), two 2010 3rds (Jerome Gauthier-Leduc and  Kevin Sundher), a 2010 4th (Steven Shipley), a 2010 7th (Riley Boychuk), a 2012 1st (Zemgus Girgensons), a 2012 2nd (Jake McCabe), a 2012 7th (Judd Peterson), and a 2013 5th.

What does that even mean, aside from the fact that the people Darcy trades picks to GMs who can’t draft worth a sh*t?  (Seriously, look at those names.)  Well it means that Darcy:

Gave up – 4,681 games played, 586 goals (.44 g/60), and 1,130 assists (.77 a/60)

Acquired – 5,026 games played, 777 goals (.56 g/60), and 1,310 assists (.84 a/60)

Well okay then.  There have been good trades and bad trades, but what the above tells us is that Darcy Regier’s trades have been a slightly above average wash.  (The goalies probably even each other out too.)  What bothers me is that he seems to try to win trades more than he tries to fill needs, but no numbers will ever prove that.  I’d probably give him a C+ as a trading GM.  Maybe a B- with the Hodgson trade looking better and better.  Still, trading is a small part of a GM’s duties.  Let’s move on.

Free Agency

Again this is a very, very simplified analysis.  Beyond the production is the actual contracts, but I think that even this is telling.

Darcy has signed Teppo Numinen, Jaroslav Spacek, Jocelyn Thibeault, Patrick Lalime, Steve Montador, Jordan Leopold, Nolan Pratt, Mathieu Darche, Joe DiPenta, Rob Niedermayer, Jean-Phillippe Lamoreaux, Dennis McCauley, Matt Ellis (waivers), Cody McCormick, Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Grier, Colin Stuart, Jeff Cowan, Mark Parrish, and David Leggio…

…and let walk…

…Alexei Zhitnik, Jay McKee, Miroslav Satan, Mike Grier, Danny Briere, Dmitri Kalinin, Brad Brown, Doug Janik, Chris Drury, Andy Delmore, Michael Leighton, Dainius Zubrus, Rory Fitzpatrick, Ty Conklin, J.P. Dumont, Jaroslav Spacek, Henrik Tallinder, Mikael Tellqvist, Maxim Afinogenov, Toni Lydman, Dominic Moore, Raffi Torres, Adam Mair, and Tim Kennedy.

Again, the goalies are probably a wash.

Signed – 5,003 games played, 465 goals (.44 g/60), 926 assists (.64 a/60)

Let Walk – 7,751 games played, 1,219 goals (.52 g/60), 2,146 assists (.97 a/60)

You can take Briere and Drury out of the equation and it’s still ugly.  And you can do this test a bunch of different ways, some statistical and some not.  Quick name the best contracts that Darcy has signed.  What do you have, Andrej Sekera (2.75), Tyler Ennis (2.81), Jason Pominville (5.3), Ryan Miller (6.25), Ehrhoff (4.0), with at least a few of those debatable?  Now name the bad ones.  Jochen Hecht (3.525), Paul Gaustad (2.3), Tim Connolly (4.5), Drew Stafford (4.0), Ville Leino (4.5), Cody McCormick (1.2), Tyler Myers (5.5), and several others, most of them fairly evident.

Final Thoughts

If I were to grade Darcy, I would probably give him an A in the draft, a C+ in making trades, and an F in handling free agency.  All that adds up to mediocrity, which is what the Sabres have been for some time.  If you’re the Sabres, and you’re looking to be the best in every phase, Darcy is not a fit, at least not with the full duties of a General Manager.  If he were willing to curb is ego and give up his GM duties in favor of running the scouting department, he might still have a place in this organization, but I don’t know that he would ever do that.

6 Comments leave one →
  1. Sam permalink
    03/26/13 5:12 PM

    So if you were making the decisions on the front office what would you do. And what do you see the sabres actually doing?

  2. 03/26/13 6:30 PM

    It’s difficult to say because it’s difficult to know what Darcy has and hasn’t tried. One small move that immediately comes to mind is moving Stafford for Clowe and a pick if the Sharks will part with one. They want to get younger and add scoring, and the Sabres need to shed bad contracts and underachieving players. Clowe is 3 years older and comes with the same risk of not producing, but he plays a style that you hate less when he isn’t putting up points.

    My goals would be to move/lose bad contracts and/or players that are one dimensional, Stafford, Myers, Leopold, Regehr, and see what you can get for some others, Pominville, Ennis. I would want to add as many picks and prospects as I could with an emphasis on playing both ends of the ice.

    I want to keep Vanek because of his talent, Hodgson because of his upside, Sekera because of his contract, and Leino because of possession. If I can’t find NHL-ready young talent, I’m willing to stock the team with borderline talent that will skate through a wall to stay in the NHL to make a team that is at least fun to watch and foster a culture of premier work ethic while the talent and the picks develop.

  3. 03/26/13 6:33 PM

    The GM has to fix three things:
    Lack of two-way players (especially at center)
    Abundance of one-dimensional players (Stafford can shoot and…?)
    Too many bad, not enough good contracts

  4. 03/26/13 6:44 PM

    Oh right, the second part of your question lol. I would say the Sabres are going to fix some minor deficiency through trade, i.e. moving Stafford or Leopold for a pick, and perhaps making a bigger splash in Free Agency, especially if Regier is gone.

    • Sam permalink
      03/27/13 9:02 AM

      And how about on the larger scale… Will Darcy lose his job? Do you trust him to make the changes needed ? And hire a coach / coaching staff to get the job done … And how does the power play coach still have a job? I personally feel ruff got the short end of the stick and Darcy should be the one to have been fired. Darcy built a team simply to weak down the middle… Not one solid two way center or one solid at face offs and it shows. As for the power play. It’s just bad… Some on blame on ruff ,yes, but I don’t like what Darcy has built…

Trackbacks

  1. Mr. Regier: Tear Down That Team | GET REAL HOCKEY

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 864 other followers

%d bloggers like this: