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Vulgar Statistics: The Best ‘Tween-Lockout Enforcers

12/04/12

Yes, you read that right, this is not an opinion piece.  It is a quantitative hodge-podgery of numbers used to determine the most frightening ape/man to strap on a pair of skates in the NHL between the lockouts.  This all came about with a question I posed to Backhand Shelf’s Justin Bourne; “Who is the most intimidating enforcer in the NHL today?”  His answer was swift and certain; Zdeno Chara with an honorable mention to Milan Lucic.  I countered, saying that those guys aren’t even the best fighters on their own team, but to Bourne (and he’s not wrong), Chara’s sheer destructive power makes him the last guy you want to tangle with.  In that vein, John Scott deserves to be part of the discussion.

I am not convinced.  There are two very big and very different problems I have with either Scott or Chara being the most intimidating.  John Scott, while an absurd 6’8″ and 270 pounds is an old-school goon in a new-school NHL.  It’s tough to be afraid of a guy if he isn’t going to be in the lineup most of the time.  Chara, on the other hand, is going to line up across from you night in and night out, but other than make David Koci spout blood like Old Faithful, what has he really done?  Some YouTube research reveals the answer: very little.  Sure he fought Georges Laraque and Donald Brashear, but those were fights in the same way that Andrej Sekera vs. Vladimir Sobotka was a fight.


(Editor’s note: And not a single punch was landed that day.)

I realized I was asking the wrong question.  "Intimidating" allows you to subsist on reputation alone with very little substance.  Sure you have to earn that reputation to begin with, but by and large, once people see you as that guy, it's difficult to convince them otherwise.  Make a mediocre fighter like David Koci bleed and put Max Pacioretty in the hospital and suddenly you're the toughest customer in the NHL even though most people can't name a single one of your fights off the top of their head.  When I was going through over 400 fights that occurred between the lockouts, there were two categories of guys, those that sought out worthy competition, and Milan Lucic.

In all seriousness, there was a certain fraternity of guys that fought each other and (mostly) no one else.  Guys like Andrew Peters, Brian McGrattan, Wade Belak, and Georges Laraque.  There were a few guys that dropped the gloves with as many as they could, regardless of who they were, mainly Jared Boll, George Parros, and Zenon Konopka.  And then there were guys that seemed to be pretty careful about their competition, consistently fighting guys that were either small, poor fighters, or both, "enforcers" like Milan Lucic, Steve Ott, Jordin Tootoo, Dan Carcillo, Gregory Campbell, and Derek Dorsett.

That all being said, I decided to change my question slightly from "most intimidating" to "last guy you want punching you."  That way I could encompass some legends who have since retired in addition to players that are newer to the game.  My basis for putting people on this list was pretty simple: appear on Hockey Fights’ top 20 for at least one year between the lockouts, AND have played in 2009-2010 or later (to avoid painting a poor picture of guys who were past their prime) AND don’t be named Zac Rinaldo because the guy is seriously my size and eff him.  (You’re listed at 180 now.  No one is buying that.)

So what statistical categories were considered, and why:

Games Per Year – Because you want the guy to be in the lineup often.

Fight Frequency – Because you want the guy to be ready to go anytime, anywhere.

Height and Weight

Modified Win/Loss Record Based on Hockey Fights Polls for Each Fight – Instead of the W-L-D format, I went W-L-D-PLW-PLL with the last two columns being plurality wins and losses (received the most votes between W/L/D options, but less than 50% overall) and counting as .75 wins and .25 wins respectively.  I initially wanted to tally every vote for and against that every guy had ever received, but that was just too much.  Taking plurality wins and losses into account allowed me to more correctly grade guys lower who were barely winning their fights.

Percentage of Fights vs. Other Guys on This List – I wanted to see who was facing the stiffest competition.  Because no one is impressed by victories over Steve Montador.

Average Height and Weight of Opponent – I also wanted to see who was picking on smaller fighters without hurting guys like Chara and Scott who don’t have very many people in their weight class.  Since these were ranked against each other, it was possible for Chara and Scott to fight guys much smaller than them (they did) and still be ranked near the top (they were).

Height and Weight of Opponent vs. Own Height and Weight – At the same time, I didn’t want to hurt the smaller guys who were fighting smaller opponents that were “big” compared to them.  While this did tend to hurt the guys like Chara and Scott, I felt it was necessary to include and that the harm wouldn’t be as great considering the sheer number of statistical categories I considered.

Modified Win/Loss Record vs. Other Guys on This List – You have to beat the best in order to be the best.

Smallest Drop in Win/Loss Percentage vs. Other Guys on This List – I wanted to highlight the guys that stepped up their game against other elite fighters.

All 52 fighters were ranked 1-52 in these categories with two exceptions, Height, and Height of Average Opponent.  When you’re ranking things, it’s common practice that if two items tie (for first let’s say), then the next one in sequence is third since they are the third best.  Because there were so many ties in these two categories, it often ended in wide splits between players that were only separated by an inch, or a fraction of an inch.  So for average height I only added half the number of tied individuals to the rank.  (Ex. 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 6 became 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4.  #2 + (4 total #2s)/2 = 4).  And since the margin was even smaller for Height of Average Opponent (typically .1″ between spots), it simply became the next number in sequence. (Ex. 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 6 became 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3).

Finally, I weighed the more important categories, 3x for Win pct., Pct. of fights vs. Elite Fighters, Win pct. vs. Elite Fighters, and Win Pct. Drop vs. Elite Fighters, and 2x for Fight Frequency and Average Height and Weight of opponent.  Being big got you in the door, you made your money on being good.

Obviously there are a few issues with something like this.  The first is that I looked at over 400 fights, I may have screwed some numbers up.  Please let me know and I’ll fix them.  Also, I realize that weighting the categories like I did takes some of the objectivity away from the study.  That’s fine.  Finally, there were a few polls on Hockey Fights that were broken and couldn’t be viewed, so if you see small discrepancies between a guy’s number of fights and his win-loss record, that’s probably why.

Since the Excel file contains six tabs, one of which is 403 rows by 76 columns, I will link the page on Google Docs right now and give a rundown of the more interesting fighters followed by the bottom 5, and then top 10.

FIGHTERS OF INTEREST:

#12 Zdeno Chara

78 games per year (2nd)

Fights every 34.25 games (52nd)

6’9″ tall (1st)

255 pounds (3rd)

.859 win pct. (10-0-3-3-0 /// 13-0-3) (2nd)

6’3.5″ Average Opponent (4th)

232.8 pound Average Opponent (1st)

5.5″ Taller than Average Opponent (51st)

22.2 Pounds Heaver than Average Opponent (50th)

38% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (37th)

.792 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (2nd)

7.88% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (23rd)

Even though this study was inspired by Chara, I actually had no idea where he would end up.  He is massive, and he has won most of his fights, but at the same time has squared off against a lot of sub-par opponents.  Based on intimidation alone, be probably belongs in the top 5, but on this list I feel he landed right where he should have.  He has all the markings of a classic intimidation guy; 1 or 2 fights that he won convincingly (Koci’s face geyser), no fights that he lost convincingly (hugfests vs. Brashear and Laraque), and a certain mystique that comes with not fighting very often.  He could knock your face in…  If he squares off against John Scott the next time we have hockey, expect him to hug Scott and fall to the ice because contrary to appearances, Zdeno Chara is not stupid.  I apologize in advance for the Jack Edwardsiness of this clip:

 

#13 Andrew Peters

37 games per year (48th)

Fights every 3.28 games (6th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

240 pounds (6th)

.544 win pct. (19-16-10-8-4 /// 27-20-10) (30th)

6’3.1″ Average Opponent (8th)

224.5 pound Average Opponent (15th)

0.9″ Taller than Average Opponent (40th)

15.5 Pounds Heaver than Average Opponent (45th)

70% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (7th)

.544 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (10-9-10-8-3 /// 18-12-10) (25th)

0.02% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (8th)

Peters right below Chara?  Insanity!  People who watched the Sabres forget just how frightening Andrew Peters was up until the 2007-2008 season when his main goal seemed to shift to simply protecting his face.  From 2005-2007 he was 13-5-3-3-1 (16-6-3) in fights.  He also went up against some of the heaviest and most difficult competition.  Ultimately his career became colored by his latter years in which he seemed overly concerned about getting hit.  (Hey, who can blame him.)  Most will think Peters landed way too high on this list, but when you average the good and the bad, 13th is a lot closer to being accurate than you’d think.

 

#18 John Scott

37 games per year (48th)

Fights every 6.64 games (41st)

6’8″ tall (2nd)

270 pounds (1st)

.989 win pct. (21-0-0-1-0 /// 22-0-0) (1st)

6’2.5″ Average Opponent (13th)

218.9 pound Average Opponent (29th)

5.5” Taller than Average Opponent (51st)

51.1 Pounds Heaver than Average Opponent (52nd)

50% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (27th)

.977 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (10-0-0-1-0 /// 11-0-0) (1st)

1.15% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (11th)

John Scott is probably the single most destructive fighting force in the NHL today…when he’s in the lineup.  A mediocre puncher, Scott makes up for it by being so strong he can just hold the guy in place for his slow rights.  Scott is hurt by his limited hockey abilities that keep him out of the lineup, and by his mediocre opponents, but there might be an explanation for that.  I noticed that many young enforcers had to wade through a year of fighting anyone they could before they “moved up” into the pantheon of elites where guys like Laraque and Belak and Boogaard would take them on.  A little bit of that could be working against Scott.  Or it could just be the fact that no one wants to fight him.

 

#36 Milan Lucic

72 games per year (6th)

Fights every 8.98 games (48th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

228 pounds (18th)

.744 win pct. (25-4-4-3-5 /// 28-9-4) (5th)

6’2.4″ Average Opponent (14th)

217.7 pound Average Opponent (34th)

1.6” Taller than Average Opponent (44th)

10.3 Pounds Heaver than Average Opponent (41st)

35% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (41st)

.571 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (6-3-1-1-3 /// 7-6-1) (22nd)

23.19% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (43rd)

It’s easy to look tough when you’re fighting guys like Paul Gaustad on a regular basis.  I’m not sure if he’s crafty enough to know exactly who he can go up against, but Lucic has made a living out of fighting guys that are smaller than him, not used to fighting, or both.  Almost every time he’s faced off against a guy that is his size and can fight, he’s gotten handled.  The only players that fit that criteria from this list that Lucic has actually fought are Ben Eager, Colton Orr, Jared Boll, John Erskine, Cody McCormick, Eric Boulton, and Raitis Ivanans, of which Lucic is 2-3-1-1-2 /// 3-5-1 (.417) against.  Of those, Boll and McCormick aren’t great fighters (and Boll still beat him once).  His best competition has been Ivanans, Erskine, and Orr.  Um…yeah.

 

THE BOTTOM 5

#48 Derek Dorsett

64 games per year (14th)

Fights every 4.65 games (23rd)

5’11” tall (27th)

188 pounds (52nd)

.395 win pct. (13-23-16-0-3 /// 13-26-16) (49th)

6’1.6″ Average Opponent (22nd)

212.6 pound Average Opponent (42nd)

2.6″ Shorter than Average Opponent (3rd)

24.6 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (1st)

29% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (46th)

.250 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (1-8-5-0-2 /// 1-10-5) (49th)

15.79% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (36th)

Ahh Derek Dorsett.  I think we all remember that time Patrick Kaleta beat him to a pulp.  Dorsett actually contributes to his team in a hockey sense (what little good that does), but he’s awful in every category that matters.  The only thing that almost pushes him out of the bottom five is that he constantly takes on guys much larger than him.  So he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

 

#49 Matt Martin

51 games per year (32nd)

Fights every 4.78 games (25th)

6’3″ tall (11th)

210 pounds (36th)

.524 win pct. (8-7-11-3-2 /// 11-9-11) (35th)

6’2.3″ Average Opponent (15th)

209.9 pound Average Opponent (47th)

0.7″ Taller than Average Opponent (39th)

0.1 Pounds Heavier than Average Opponent (28th)

34% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (42nd)

.278 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (0-3-4-0-2 /// 0-5-4) (48th)

47.01% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (50th)

I didn’t know much about Martin heading into this, and I’m okay with that continuing.  He’s average physically and terrible at everything else.

 

#50 Gregory Campbell

74 games per year (5th)

Fights every 11.28 games (51st)

6’0″ tall (24th)

197 pounds (49th)

.217 win pct. (1-22-8-3-4 /// 4-26-8) (52nd)

6’1.0″ Average Opponent (24th)

208.6 pound Average Opponent (50th)

1.0″ Shorter than Average Opponent (15th)

11.6 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (8th)

33% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (43rd)

.196 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (0-8-5-0-1 /// 0-9-5) (51st)

9.52% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (26th)

Gregory Campbell probably doesn’t belong on this list due to how rarely he fights.  He just squeaked onto one of HF’s top 20 lists and that’s how he made my list.  Once it became apparent how god awful he was at everything, I decided to keep him there.  Now I doubt anyone in the NHL is afraid of Gregory Campbell, but can we just drown that “big bad Bruins” myth in a vat of acid please?

 

#51 Steve Ott

67 games per year (11th)

Fights every 7.17 games (44th)

6’0″ tall (24th)

193 pounds (50th)

.473 win pct. (21-24-18-1-2 /// 22-26-18) (42nd)

6’1.0″ Average Opponent (24th)

209.2 pound Average Opponent (49th)

1.0″ Shorter than Average Opponent (15th)

16.2 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (5th)

9% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (52nd)

.125 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (1-7-0-0-0) (52nd)

73.60% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (52nd)

It became clear to me when I started looking at fights that many of the guys that fight a lot don’t fit the traditional enforcer model.  They’re smaller guys who have a fair amount of skill.  They’re agitators, and yet the number of fights is there as you can clearly see by Ott’s totals.  Ott is never going to pummel anyone into submission, nor is he going to keep the other teams’ goons in check.  What he is going to do is get under the skin of star players and sucker them into taking themselves off the ice for five minutes.  See Iginla, Jarome, who Ott has made a career out of harassing.

Love at first fist.

#52 Matt Hendricks

54 games per year (26th)

Fights every 5.97 games (35th)

6’0″ tall (24th)

215 pounds (31st)

.444 win pct. (8-12-12-2-2 /// 10-14-12) (47th)

6’0.8″ Average Opponent (26th)

204.1 pound Average Opponent (52nd)

0.8″ Shorter than Average Opponent (17th)

10.9 Pounds Heavier than Average Opponent (42nd)

19% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (43rd)

.214 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (1-5-1-0-0) (50th)

51.79% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (51st)

Ah, Matt Hendricks, a medium sized guy that fights small guys and isn’t even good at it.  Bravo.

 

The Top Ten

#10 Paul Bissonnette

34 games per year (52nd)

Fights every 3.65 games (10th)

6’3″ tall (11th)

220 pounds (27th)

.640 win pct. (20-8-11-2-2 /// 22-10-11) (14th)

6’2.5″ Average Opponent (13th)

221.9 pound Average Opponent (20th)

0.5″ Taller than Average Opponent (35th)

1.9 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (23rd)

58% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (19th)

.630 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (12-6-4-2-1 /// 14-7-4) (11th)

1.49% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (12th)

Biznasty squeaks into the top ten despite being on Twitter way more than he’s actually in the lineup.  Give him credit, he fights big guys who are fighters, and does well.  Unlike Milan Lucic.

 

#9 Darcy Hordichuk

58 games per year (22nd)

Fights every 5.23 games (29th)

6’1″ tall (20th)

214 pounds (33rd)

.593 win pct. (32-16-17-5-8 /// 37-24-17) (23rd)

6’2.9″ Average Opponent (9th)

223.5 pound Average Opponent (16th)

1.9″ Taller than Average Opponent (5th)

9.5 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (9th)

67% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (10th)

.583 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (19-9-12-4-7 /// 23-16-12) (19th)

1.62% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (13th)

I’ll be honest, I didn’t know much about Hordichuk other than kind of knowing who he was, but he performed well, and all this comes as one of the smaller fighters on this list.

 

#8 Derek Boogaard

46 games per year (40th)

Fights every 4.54 games (6th)

6’7″ tall (3rd)

258 pounds (2nd)

.721 win pct. (37-12-6-5-1 /// 42-13-6) (6th)

6’3.4″ Average Opponent (5th)

230.0 pound Average Opponent (6th)

3.6″ Taller than Average Opponent (50th)

28 Pounds Heavier than Average Opponent (51st)

62% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (15th)

.645 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (19-10-3-5-1 /// 24-11-3) (10th)

10.62% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (28th)

Some will probably think Boogaard is too low on this list, and to be fair the average fighter in relation to his weight hurt him more than I would have liked, but I also thought his winning percentage, and the amount of other fighters he squared off against would be higher given his reputation.  Boogaard was one tough customer, but I can be okay with every single guy that is ranked above him.

 

#7 John Erskine

49 games per year (35th)

Fights every 9.03 games (49th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

216 pounds (30th)

.703 win pct. (22-5-6-0-4 /// 22-9-6) (7th)

6’3.1″ Average Opponent (8th)

225.0 pound Average Opponent (13th)

0.9″ Taller than Average Opponent (40th)

9 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (10th)

63% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (14th)

.688 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (14-4-4-0-2 /// 14-6-4) (5th)

2.16% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (15th)

John Erskine was another guy I didn’t know much about, so here’s a video of him manhandling Milan Lucic.

 

#6 Ryan Reaves

44 games per year (43rd)

Fights every 4.19 games (16th)

6’1″ tall (20th)

229 pounds (17th)

.571 win pct. (11-8-2-0-0) (24th)

6’2.5″ Average Opponent (13th)

221.4 pound Average Opponent (23rd)

1.5″ Shorter than Average Opponent (11th)

7.6 Pounds Heavier than Average Opponent (38th)

62% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (15th)

.654 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (8-4-1-0-0) (8th)

14.42% gain in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (1st)

Ryan Reaves is one of the newcomers that I was curious about tracking.  WIth the old guard of Peters, Laraque, Brashear, Belak, McGrattan, and company fading out of the limelight, I’m interested to see who, if anyone, takes their place.  Ryan Reaves is one of those guys, and most interestingly (though probably due to a small sample size) he raises his game against the toughest fighters.

 

#5 Colton Orr

54 games per year (26th)

Fights every 3.77 games (11th)

6’3″ tall (11th)

222 pounds (23rd)

.601 win pct. (47-28-12-7-5 /// 54-33-12) (21st)

6’3.2″ Average Opponent (7th)

229.1 pound Average Opponent (8th)

0.2″ Shorter than Average Opponent (25th)

7.1 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (15th)

71% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (5th)

.546 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (28-23-8-7-4 /// 35-27-8) (24th)

9.08% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (25th)

I think if I were to make one change to this list, I could probably switch Orr with Belak.  But there is something to be said for a big guy who fights the toughest customers, even if his winning percentage lags a little bit behind some of the other guys.  You know what, I think we need to see this in slow motion.  1:20 is where it’s at.

 

#4 Wade Belak

46 games per year (40th)

Fights every 5.59 games (31st)

6’5″ tall (4th)

222 pounds (23rd)

.561 win pct. (18-12-11-4-4 /// 22-16-11) (27th)

6’3.3″ Average Opponent (6th)

230.8 pound Average Opponent (3rd)

1.7″ Taller than Average Opponent (45th)

8.8 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (11th)

78% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (5th)

.586 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (16-9-8-2-3 /// 18-12-8) (18th)

4.33% gain in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (3rd)

I always remember Wade Belak as that one guy I never wanted Peters to fight.  He just seemed to have Peters’ number.  Which is interesting because while Belak generally fared well against Peters, Peters fared well against Brian McGrattan, and Brian McGrattan always seemed to have Belak’s number.

 

#3 Raitis Ivanans

40 games per year (46th)

Fights every 5.13 games (28th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

240 pounds (6th)

.614 win pct. (21-10-13-7-4 /// 28-14-13) (16th)

6’3.7″ Average Opponent (1st)

230.2 pound Average Opponent (4th)

0.3″ Taller than Average Opponent (31st)

9.8 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (40th)

71% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (5th)

.622 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (15-7-10-5-2 /// 20-9-10) (14th)

1.33% gain in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (6th)

I had no idea who Raitis Ivanans was before I started doing this.  My goodness.  He looks like he eats rocks and craps Milan Lucices that could still kick your ass (you know, if you’re not a fighter).  Some of these guys just seem to have a strength that is more than what they are on paper, and Ivanans is one of those guys.

Listen to the aftermath for one of the top five dumbest explanations for anything ever.

 

#2 Brian McGrattan

35 games per year (51st)

Fights every 3.59 games (9th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

235 pounds (12th)

.648 win pct. (31-12-9-2-5 /// 33-17-9) (12th)

6’3.6″ Average Opponent (2nd)

229.3 pound Average Opponent (7th)

0.4″ Taller than Average Opponent (32nd)

5.7 Pounds Lighter than Average Opponent (34th)

80% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (1st)

.628 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (23-9-9-1-5 /// 24-14-9) (12th)

3.18% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (17th)

No one fought tougher competition than Brian McGrattan, who squared off against other elite fighters 80% of the time.  Unfortunately for him, most Sabres fans will only remember that time Andrew Peters broke his face, but make no mistake, McGrattan was a force to be reckoned with.

RELEASE THE MCKRAKEN!!!

 

#1 Georges Laraque

55 games per year (25th)

Fights every 6.44 games (37th)

6’4″ tall (6th)

245 pounds (4th)

.810 win pct. (26-3-5-9-1 /// 35-4-5) (3rd)

6’3.4″ Average Opponent (5th)

231.6 pound Average Opponent (2nd)

0.6″ Taller than Average Opponent (38th)

13.4 Pounds Heavier than Average Opponent (44th)

74% of Fights vs. Elite Fighters (4th)

.790 win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (16-2-3-9-1 /// 25-3-3) (3rd)

2.37% reduction in win pct. vs. Elite Fighters (16th)

The last guy you wanted to see across the ice between the lockouts was Georges Laraque.  And the most impressive part about it is that he was starting to get old.  Laraque did it all, he fought tough guys, tall guys, and big guys.  He beat the hell out of everyone who messed with him.  Only freaks of nature Zdeno Chara and John Scott had better winning percentages than Laraque.  When I was figuring out what categories to weight more than others, I noticed one thing; no matter what I did, Laraque held the top spot.  And here’s why:

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