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Vulgar Statistics: Peaking At The Right Time, Is It A Thing?

10/24/11
by

You always hear the same old rhetoric when someone gets hot come March and April.  “They’re peaking at the right time, look out!”  So I started to wonder…do Cup Champions really do that?  Is it common to tear through the end of the year and the playoffs?

The short answer is no. No they do not (with few exceptions of course).  The spreadsheet I used is rather large so I will only link to it.

Winning Percentage:

  • October – .680
  • November – .650
  • December – .650
  • January – .679
  • February – .640
  • March/April – .642*

*March and April were combined due to the low amount of games played in April.

It actually makes a whole lot of sense when you think about it.  Teams start off hot when everyone is rested and completely healthy.  They take a dip as the season progresses when injuries and fatigue strikes.  The Christmas break gives a little boost before these teams coast out the rest of the way through (in most cases their playoff spot a near-certainty) while the bubble teams beat the crap out of each other.

Final Thoughts:

If you’re one of those teams that needs to fight tooth and nail through March and April to get to the playoffs, odds are you’re going to be spent by the time you arrive more than you’re going to be riding a hot streak.  While playoff spots aren’t secured in October, you can hep yourself out immensely by winning a lot of games.  (And you can quote me on that.)

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